a science project

Otherwise known as, "someone else try and figure out what I can do at Richmond."


Here's the thing.  I need to have some kind of time goal in my head only so that I can figure out where to pace the first few miles.  I'd rather have a conservative goal and bust it in the chops than the other way around.  But with a 3-week training cycle right on the heels of really effed-up HR training cycle to a 70.3, I have absolutely no idea what I can do.  So let's play a game.  I'm going to lay out a bunch of information and you guys guess my finishing time.  Whoever is closest will win something.  If you're here, I'll buy you a coffee/beer/bottle of wine/lunch.  If you're far away, I'll mail you a present.  It can still be beer or coffee, or it can be Gu or sunglasses or something reasonable that you can choose.  Ready?  Here are the facts.

  • My resting HR is 42
  • My max HR is 176 (this is without having a correct max HR test - I reached this HR at the end of the National Half in March, and it's the highest HR I can find in 2-3 years of Garmin files).
  • My lactate threshold HR is roughly 163-165.

I've done 3 long runs since Waterman's - 10, 14, 10.  Splits from the first 10 (average HR 153), 3 weeks out:
Splits from the 14 (average HR 151), 2 weeks out:
Splits from the second 10 (average HR 150), 1 week out: 
I've also done a handful of track workouts.  Here is 2x1200, 1x800 (highlighted), which I did just shy of 3 weeks out from the race (on a Tuesday):
Average/Max on each highlighted split: 157/166, 163/171, 162/169.


And here is 3x1600, which I did about 10 days out (Thursday the following week):
Average/Max: 159/166, 160/166, 160/166.
  • The rest of my weekly mileage was easy, roughly 10 minute/mile pace.
  • In these 3 weeks, I ran an average of 25 mpw, executed: 18.32, 31.02, 26.3.  
  • My current half marathon PR (in a race) is 2:08.
  • The fastest I've ever run 13.1 miles is 1:57 (training run, March 2011).
  • I am cutting out alcohol and leftover Halloween candy for the 6 days leading up to the race.
  • My goal for the race is to really truly empty the tank.  This is my last big race before IM training gets hot and heavy, and I want to see what I can do at this distance.  Whatever that is, I will own it.  
If you'd like any additional info (more HR info, runs from pre-Waterman's, really - ask me anything), drop me a note and I'll post it.  


Side note, this is really not the time to tell me that my training is a hot mess.  I start up with a new coach on December 1st and I'm sure she is just itching to beat me senseless as my workouts land in her inbox.  So, wait until after Richmond to tell me that I'm running too far/too fast/too slow/too much/not enough, if you would please.  You can say, "I told you so!" once I post the race recap and I won't be offended at all, I promise.


I'll pick a winner next Monday after I've (duh) run the race.