Monday, November 7, 2011

a science project

Otherwise known as, "someone else try and figure out what I can do at Richmond."


Here's the thing.  I need to have some kind of time goal in my head only so that I can figure out where to pace the first few miles.  I'd rather have a conservative goal and bust it in the chops than the other way around.  But with a 3-week training cycle right on the heels of really effed-up HR training cycle to a 70.3, I have absolutely no idea what I can do.  So let's play a game.  I'm going to lay out a bunch of information and you guys guess my finishing time.  Whoever is closest will win something.  If you're here, I'll buy you a coffee/beer/bottle of wine/lunch.  If you're far away, I'll mail you a present.  It can still be beer or coffee, or it can be Gu or sunglasses or something reasonable that you can choose.  Ready?  Here are the facts.

  • My resting HR is 42
  • My max HR is 176 (this is without having a correct max HR test - I reached this HR at the end of the National Half in March, and it's the highest HR I can find in 2-3 years of Garmin files).
  • My lactate threshold HR is roughly 163-165.

I've done 3 long runs since Waterman's - 10, 14, 10.  Splits from the first 10 (average HR 153), 3 weeks out:
Splits from the 14 (average HR 151), 2 weeks out:
Splits from the second 10 (average HR 150), 1 week out: 
I've also done a handful of track workouts.  Here is 2x1200, 1x800 (highlighted), which I did just shy of 3 weeks out from the race (on a Tuesday):
Average/Max on each highlighted split: 157/166, 163/171, 162/169.


And here is 3x1600, which I did about 10 days out (Thursday the following week):
Average/Max: 159/166, 160/166, 160/166.
  • The rest of my weekly mileage was easy, roughly 10 minute/mile pace.
  • In these 3 weeks, I ran an average of 25 mpw, executed: 18.32, 31.02, 26.3.  
  • My current half marathon PR (in a race) is 2:08.
  • The fastest I've ever run 13.1 miles is 1:57 (training run, March 2011).
  • I am cutting out alcohol and leftover Halloween candy for the 6 days leading up to the race.
  • My goal for the race is to really truly empty the tank.  This is my last big race before IM training gets hot and heavy, and I want to see what I can do at this distance.  Whatever that is, I will own it.  
If you'd like any additional info (more HR info, runs from pre-Waterman's, really - ask me anything), drop me a note and I'll post it.  


Side note, this is really not the time to tell me that my training is a hot mess.  I start up with a new coach on December 1st and I'm sure she is just itching to beat me senseless as my workouts land in her inbox.  So, wait until after Richmond to tell me that I'm running too far/too fast/too slow/too much/not enough, if you would please.  You can say, "I told you so!" once I post the race recap and I won't be offended at all, I promise.


I'll pick a winner next Monday after I've (duh) run the race.  

44 comments:

  1. I don't know anything about all that jazz but I will be in Richmond as well!! It's gonna be a blast!

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  2. If you are truly emptying the tank and racing at a HR in the 165-170 range I am going to say that you will run a 1:53:22.

    I typically run at 155 and I am around 8:00/mi at that pace and I ran my half this weekend at 171 and ran it in 7:31/mi. That is a :30 imrpovement or a 6.5 minute per 13 mile improvement. Using that math I am going to say that you will be down at 1:53 (not exactly 6.5 minutes but there may be some give back in there.)

    SMASH it and when you cross that finish line in 1:53:22 I want to see pics of the GRRRRR face.

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  3. 1:47:47. Based on none of what you have above (cause that is way too much thinking at 8:42 on a Monday) but what I know is in your heart and head.

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  4. All of this heart rate science is a bit too much for me, so I'm just going to say that you are going to run your fastest 13.1 ever (race or training run). 1:56.

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  5. 1:55. Only because that is the fastest I could possibly pace you to right now. Feel free to ditch my beer-fueled ass, though. :)

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  6. Hmmm...I have no idea, but if I have to guess I would say you'll run right around a 1:50.

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  7. 1.59:11
    Very precise, but that's what the baby Jesus and the other voices told me it's going to be.

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  8. You are super fit and determined. Calculating . . . calculating . . . calculating . . . . I get 1:57!

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  9. I just spent way too much time on this. . . I think a good conservative goal would be a 1:58:00. That would mean you start out at a pace of 9:01 and hold steady for the first half. If it feels good, gradually pick it up. Once again, you said you wanted a CONSERVATIVE goal, and I think a 1:58:00 is it.

    I don't want to guess your actual time, because it all depends on if you are having a great day or an off day or an "ok" day. I do think that if you are having a great day, you can do faster that this by 2-3 minutes. :-)

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  10. Ooooh! I like games. And winning. I'm going to say 1:55:43.

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  11. i basically didn't read any of that. i'm guessing 2:00. (don't be pissed if that is too slow for you.)

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  12. I'm going to go 1:55, based on everything you said above.. It's going to kick you ASS, but I think if you really empty the tank, you can pull it off!

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  13. Taking 10 minutes off your PR would be a nice way to leave Richmond: 1:58:00

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  14. All of those numbers are making my head hurt, so I am going to just pick a nice round number: 1:53:29 and six tenths of a second. :)

    Good luck!

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  15. definitely under 2. which may not be conservative but damn I want you to go sub-2 this time! so...1:54:32 :D

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  16. Clair said what I said. Do we both win if you run a 1:58:00?

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  17. AHHHH NUMBERRRSSSSS. I say 1:58:37. Are these Price is Right rules? Closest without going over?

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  18. I would say that right now you have a 1:55 in you. No doubt with some more work, non-injuries, etc, you'll be knocking on the door to sub 1:50, but I think 1:55 is a good goal for right now. I'd recommend running comfortably hard for the first 8-9 miles and then all out race the last 3-4. DO IT!

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  19. I'm not going to look at anyone else's thoughts. But I think you're going to finish in 1:54.

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  20. If I were you, I'd set a conservative goal of "anything under 2:00." If you start doing 9-minute miles, it's easy to pick up the pace and run a faster race if you'd like to, but it's not so fast that you'll zap yourself if your legs aren't feeling ON that day.Whatever your time is, good luck, and have a blast running!

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  21. Notgonnacommentnotgonnacommentnotgonnacomment

    (how about turn your watch off for the race?) :p

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  22. Way too many numbers for my brain to calculate, so I'm going on gut and saying 1:58:32

    Regardless, have a great race and SMASH it to smithereens!

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  23. I'm gonna guess 1:57:13 and mostly can't wait until somebody Price-is-Right's you and says "ONE SECOND." Heh.

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  24. Cutting out Halloween candy is a major sacrifice! Good luck.

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  25. I'm going with 1:49. Sometimes life surprises you and blows your PR out of the water. I'm going to say that Sunday is going to be that day. Good luck!

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  26. This is so fun...

    I am guessing 1:56:56 just cause I like the look of it!

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  27. 1:55:23. Final answer.

    You are going to do awesome!

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  28. If I was any good at numbers I'd have my own a lot better under control. But, for fun, 1:56:24.

    (where is this leftover Halloween candy?)

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  29. oooooh, i love science projects!! I am going to say 1:56:32 for no other reason then because I want to. There is no actual science behind that number :)

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  30. hahaha. i love this...it was so much information though and i kinda dont understand HR training...but hoping to learn at some point because i am sure it would be great information to know about myself...rather than avoiding it ;) anywayyyy. i am guessing 1:58:39! good luck!

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  31. HR SchH-R (you get that, right?). 1:59:50.

    Get it, girl.

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  32. I'm gonna say 2:01but only because of the vomit factor.

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  33. 1:54:13
    And no puking, just some dry heaving at the finish. But loudly enough to alarm whoever is standing near.

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  34. I think you'll come in around 2:00. If you start conservatively and then push through, you'll definitely come out with a PR but will probably push for that sub 2 and try and come in just under.

    Good luck!

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  35. Hmm, your stats are pretty similar to mine/some of my recent runs and times but I think you're willing to push yourself a little harder than I am, so I'm going to go with 1:56:24. NAIL it.

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  36. I'm going to say 1:56:38. Your training looks similar to mine and that was my goal at my half last week (minus the weird seconds). I didn't hit it, so I'd love it if you could so I can see that it's possible.
    You are totally going to blow away that PR, though. I can tell you that. I def think sub 2 or just above.

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  37. ohhhhhhhhh I did not know you had a sub-1:50 goal! ok then I totally want to change my prediction in support. ummmmmmm: 1:48:16. :)

    KILL IT!!!

    (hope Thom kills his marathon too. hey is he running in Vibrams??? I <3 VFFs but I broke my ankle running 10mi in them when I'd only trained up to 6. boo, stupidity.)

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